Top Ten c2013

With the start of 2014 pre-season testing,  here's the Flat-12 Top Ten for the 2013 F1 World Championship and some thoughts on the year ahead.    Better late than never?

2013 was a difficult year for F1.   Pirelli, acting on direction from the sport, delivered compounds so delicate that drivers were left skittering for grip and engineers scratching their heads.     Purists cried that F1 had become artificial and drivers lamented that their focus was no longer strictly on racing.

Yet for ten rounds this was the 2013 face of F1, where results were far from certain, everyone struggled equally, and tire discontent amounted to little more than grumbling and griping.   That is, until Silverstone.   High cornering speeds and sharp curbs combined to create an altogether separate and dangerous problem of de-laminating rubber and shredding carcasses.    Not good.

Rubber makes the politics go 'round

Red Bull's determined lobbyist capitalized on the debacle to wrap the safety question around compounds as well as tire construction, and convinced the paddock that the time to return to conservative compounds had arrived.   Thus, whatever unpredictability the 2013 World Championship offered was lost, and F1 once again returned to the temple of aerodynamics under the lofty reign of the deity of wind slip.

Politics have always played a role in F1, yet despite a string of exciting seasons where sport trumped scheming, they again rose to the fore in 2013.  Ultimately, the abrupt shift was less about safety than it was aero supremacy.   In this writer's opinion, this past season will go down as a triumph of politics over sport, and one of the poorest competitions over F1's long history.

As the season unraveled, I suspected that the task of drawing a precise perspective on driver performance would be tough.   The thought of musing a brave fight to the podium or unexpected rise of a midfield competitor fell pointless and victim to my cynical nature.  My normal sense of intrigue was virtually destroyed under the weight of fickle motor sport governance.

IMHO, there was a new chink in the sport's armor, and the latter half of the season felt like packaged entertainment.

In this light, is it possible to fairly evaluate one driver against his opponent?   When does uncharacteristic mistakes, dysfunction, and intra-team fighting render the exercise futile?    Ferrari, Lotus, McLaren, Sauber, Williams:  each endured tension and strained driver relationships at some aspect of the campaign.

F1 drivers have often been, to some degree, portrayed as super human.   Michael Schumacher set the example for what a human can achieve through commitment, determination, dedication.    Intense training, conditioning, while adhering to very strict diets is just the beginning and beyond the discipline of most mortal men.

But as aero took precedence, F1 began to look more like a mortal endeavor.   I guess F1 drivers are human beings who stumble through turmoil just like the rest of us, perhaps not as awkwardly, but stumble all the same.  Sometimes at an additional 2.5 seconds per lap.

Therefore, I'm not certain the 2013 season is even worth discussing, but please comment if inspired.    A little debate as winter testing commences might liven what will hopefully be the beginning of a more competitive era.

I did not go back and recount stats, compare lap times.   My logic is seat of the pants and probably flawed.   This is merely an impression, my impression, indelibly engraved in my mind by this horribly disappointing season.

1)  Sebastian Vettel (ranked #4 in 2012, co-#1 in 2011)

Nothing sensational.   Vettel's robotic pole to top step precision every week put me to sleep.    He deserves, however, credit for bullet proof consistency, his almost complete lack of mistakes, and his making the most of the opportunity bestowed upon him.     Vettel is quick, focused.   He's managed to place himself in a position to win and at the end of the day that is often the most important skill of any competitor.    I have always considered him one of the best, but despite his dominance I still don't rate him the most complete driver on the grid.

If Red Bull have one strength, they appear more adept at developing their car over the course of a season.    Looking over the past five years, Newey's cars have never started as dominant as they finished.   It would be fair to suggest that Seb is also an integral part of that evolution.

2)  Nico Hulkenberg (ranked #5 in 2012)

Nico drove with purpose in 2013.    The man definitely had something to prove, and he did just that.   Yet despite proving that he is ready to fight at the front, Hulkenberg found himself victim to shoddy economics and had to resort to yet another midfield contender for 2014.

In time,  I hope we'll see him at Ferrari.     IMHO he's been groomed for that role long enough. 

3)  Kimi Räikkönen (ranked #2 in 2012)

Who'd a thunk Kimi's dominant win in the Melbourne season opener would prove to be his only victory of the season?    Perhaps Räikkönen deserves better than this third place ranking . . . he should be commended for not allowing a lack of proper payment deter his early to mid season efforts: several brave and sensational drives from a man reborn to his prior mid 2008 form.

Unfortunately, as the season wore on things must've been disintegrating in the Lotus camp as Kimi appeared to lose steam by the time the teams reached Korea.  Once Räikkönen was publicly dressed down by Alan Permane in India, it was over.    Kimi showed up in Abu Dhabi despite reports that he had already given up, but his uncharacteristic first corner retirement gave pause to conspiracy theorists across the globe.    No one was surprised when it was shortly announced that he'd driven his last race for Lotus.

4)  Fernando Alonso (ranked #1 in 2012, co-#1 in 2011)

Those who know me will be shocked to find my relegating Fernando to a meager fourth on this tally.    I largely consider Alonso the most complete driver on the grid and perhaps the world.    Unfortunately, as it became apparent that Red Bull was once again gaining the upper hand, Fernando's human side reared itself in the form of frustration.    After three and one third seasons prior where he drove with as much heart, courage, and stamina as we've ever witnessed, to come so close to taking the title in 2010 and 2012, it seemed impossible that he would remain invincible.    To his credit he still managed a string of 2nd place finishes from Belgium to Singapore, so it would be unfair to suggest that he simply gave up.

I had a hard time choosing between Kimi and Fernando.   The argument for rating Fernando higher is strong.   Both drivers endured a lot of frustration with no real manner, but their phenomenal skills, to rise above.   In the end I feel Fernando appeared a bit worn for wear, whereas Räikkönen simply opted to depart.   Alonso may have also engaged his employer in a game of false posturing and media innuendo over a fictitious move to Red Bull.  

5)  Nico Rosberg (ranked #8 in 2012, #3 in 2011)

As I eluded to last year, Nico Rosberg is one tough nut to categorize, compartmentalize, or truly understand.    Often identified as the most inconsistent driver on the grid, I find the description a tad unfair.  Nico delivered three pole positions and two victories in 2013.  Not counting anything but the top step, that makes him the second most accomplished pilot for the year (Alonso: two wins but no poles, and Hamilton: five poles but only one race win).   Rosberg's Monaco victory was without doubt one the most determined drives of the season.

To date Nico has more than held his own over Lewis Hamilton, much as he did over Michael Schumacher.    I'm guessing Nico may have trouble unlocking proper set up on occasion, thus adversely effecting his pace.   He is certainly the most under rated driver in F1.

6)  Romain Grosjean

One of the brighter aspects of 2013 was the re-introduction of Romain Grosjean . . . the Romain Grosjean that many of us suspected was there all along.     I first witnessed Grosjean's pace in GP2 at Spa in 2008 on the high speed blast through Pouhon.     I'm sure many will question my rating him above Hamilton, but I was extremely impressed by the manner in which Grosjean came alive in the mid season.  Although Räikkönen may have at times been off form, Grosjean's ability to "pressurize" his teammate was very real.

7)  Lewis Hamilton (ranked #3 in 2012, #6 in 2011)

I really wanted to rate Lewis higher.  He fared much better than many who questioned his jump from McLaren had expected.   He had five pole positions and at times looked to net more than his single victory in Hungary.   I give Hamilton high marks for continuing to mature and for his positive working relationship with teammate Rosberg.

As he often found himself going backwards once the lights went out, I can only wonder whether inner struggles still distract his eye from the prize.   Hopefully the 2014 title will be more clearly visible through his visor.

8)  Daniel Ricciardo

I don't believe that he's Hulkenberg-ready for the front row, but Ricciardo has demonstrated himself capable of competing there.    It's fair to say that he will only get better as 2014 progresses.
   
9)  Valtteri Bottas

What can I say?   I like this guy.   Impressive, in Montreal especially.   Given my respect for Hakkinen and Räikkönen, perhaps I'm partial to Finnish drivers.
 
10)  Mark Webber  (ranked #10 in 2012, #5 in 2011)

I really like Mark but struggled to find a home for him on this list.  It's hard to know what to think about his time at Red Bull, only to say that I wish he'd gotten out from under there before retiring.    Given the bizarre climate, I should credit Mark for managing results when other drivers such as Fernando might have blown a fuse.

Webber's race starts were consistently shaky, often nullifying whatever advantage he reaped from qualifying.    I often joked that he needed to stop doing pre-race interviews on the grid as he appeared too focused on his post retirement broadcast career.     Between the poor starts and sometimes questionable race judgement, Mark Webber will always remain an enigma to me.  

I hold the cynical opinion that Mark's race car was at times treated by the team as a test mule, effectively providing Red Bull a test restriction work around.   With Vettel on top every weekend and everyone else bumbling along behind, it would be interesting to do the math and determine how many of Mark's points they needed to secure the Constructor's title.

Webber will be missed.    He once demonstrated the pace to be a potential world champion, but I never personally saw that happening at Red Bull.

In closing . . .

No doubt there are a couple of key names missing from my tally.    Again, my logic can be challenged.

Jenson Button:  
Jenson had a down season.     The McLaren was a wash and he spent the first half of the year trying to avoid being run off the road by his over aggressive teammate.     Despite my immense respect for Jenson I've often suspected that he really needs a car to his liking.     He will be back at the front soon, I am certain.    I truly believe the new era bodes well for Jenson as lessor drivers will struggle with torque and putting the power down effectively.

Felipe Massa:  
Felipe finished 2012 on the upswing and I fully expected that trend to continue into 2013.   It didn't.    Ferrari were once again a one horse cavalry. . . and then there was Germany.    Unfortunately for Felipe,  Ferrari were left with no choice but to replace him.   I wish him a successful rebirth at Williams.

The year ahead?    My fear is that Vettel will run away with all 19 victories.    That will make people forget about the funny looking noses, real quick.  I now fully understand why I temporarily loathed Michael Schumacher when he won the first Grand Prix I attended; Imola '04.    The RB-10 looks to pick up where its predecessors left off.

If we are lucky, Mercedes and Ferrari will rise to the fight and their potential.   They possess the best driver pairings in the business.  

Ferrari must deliver a competitive car and more importantly develop it throughout the season.    The arrival of James Allison may ultimately answer Ferrari's life long struggle with tires, and that is huge, but the Scuderia's real challenge may lie beyond the wind tunnel.  Did a lack of managerial prowess handicap the once promising F-138 from being developed to it's full potential?

Given the likelihood we'll witness greater transition in development this season as the teams grapple with the new hybrid turbo era, I sadly expect Red Bull to once again remain on top.

Flat-12 Top Ten

Based solely upon the last three Grands Prix (Abu Dhabi, USA, Brazil), I'd bet that the 2012 F1 season could be safely typeset into almanacs and encyclopedias two decades from now as a remarkable year.     2012 delivered a lot of surprises, and one of the greatest ironies is that two of the best races occurred at Valencia and Abu Dhabi, circuits most commonly regarded for producing boring processions.  

With the season now complete and Sebastian Vettel claiming his third straight world driving title, the time has come once again for armchair analysis.

Enter the 2012 edition of the Flat-12 Top Ten.   A highly subjective, passionate summary utilizing the latest time proven techniques (beer) to measure the following criteria:  level of performance, consistency of performance, ability to overcome adversity (in terms of car, weather, etc.), and avoiding mistakes.

There's a lot of time wasted on compiling such useless lists, but sit back, grab those beer goggles, and join in with your own amateur punditry.

Anyway, I'm linking this post to the Torque F1 Top Ten, for an alternate, perhaps less "hoppy" perspective.  

1) Fernando Alonso

I've been following F1 a long time.     A real long time.    I can identify world champions who conquered even when they did not have the best car before I can tie my shoes.  

Lauda in 1977, Piquet in 1981, Senna in 1991, and Raikkonen in 2007 are but a few who come immediately to mind.    There were non-champion drivers such as Villeneuve who toiled bravely with the wretched 1981 Ferrari 126CK, Senna literally willing pole position at Imola from his schizo Williams prior that fateful day in 1994 . . .

Yet despite all prior examples of man over machinery I can quickly produce, I wonder if any driver at any time has overcome a car so wayward as the F2012 Ferrari to come so close to winning it all?  

Fernando is a better driver now than when he won back to back titles at Renault.     His race starts are unbelievable and his tenacity is absolute.    As with all great drivers he's made a few enemies along the way, but I have no doubt that Fernando Alonso put together the most complete performance of 2012.

Arguably Fernando made only one costly mistake all year long:   leaving Räikkönen no where to go into turn 1 at Suzuka.     Many also contend that his title was lost in the first corner melee at Spa.    Certainly, Spa was a race Alonso could have won and most certainly achieved a podium result, so the fact that he came away from both of these races empty handed is significant.  

However, if we allow that a couple of DNF's might be expected over a 20 race calendar, Monza may have inflicted the most subliminal damage.     Alonso was quickest all weekend, until Q3 . . . and although some doubt lingers over what actually happened, the loss of his expected pole position and almost certain victory hurt.    Further losing 2nd place and 3 points to Perez only added insult to injury.       

2)  Kimi Räikkönen

Räikkönen very nearly found himself leading the Driver's Championship one quarter of the way into the year.    The Lotus looked exceptionally quick at certain times, on certain circuits, but overall the car simply was not ready to run at the front.    Yet Kimi managed, much like Alonso, to turn mid field qualifying positions into podium finishes.     Räikkönen drove with great control all year long.     Fighting for position, he always did so with sublime precision, never once guilty of putting a competitor off, although many still blame him for Suzuka.     His pass on Schumacher into Eau Rouge, move around the outside of Di Resta through the twisty bits in Austin, and his final wheel to wheel exchange with Schumi at Interlagos are but several glorious displays of a driving prowess that F1 missed in 2010 and 2011.

It is for Kimi's consistency and phenomenal precision over the course of the entire season which stand foremost in my mind.

3)  Lewis Hamilton

I've long been a critic of Lewis Hamilton.   I never cared for his methods during his early days at McLaren and still feel that he threw Dave Ryan under the bus.   I always believed he was over-rated and possessed an uncanny knack to flatten brakes and blister tires.   However, times and people change.

Despite a rather uneven 2012 season, Lewis managed to pull it all together by season's end and very nearly won the last three Grands Prix in dominant fashion.    His drive in Austin was without doubt the most determined, disciplined performance of his career.

Hamilton suffered inexplicable pit stop debacles early in the year, and costly technical failures in the latter.     McLaren found themselves floundering mid-season, as demonstrated by their dreadful home race at Silverstone.  

Despite all of this, I took notice of Hamilton's newfound reserve.    His airborne hissy fits were greatly subdued if not all but gone by season's end.   In year's prior, atrocious pit stops would have left Hamilton gasping for someone's head over the team radio.   His off-track soap opera dramas, although taking a different form in terms of tweets, were in check and largely gone.

. . . and so are his days at McLaren.

I don't know what fortunes lie in wait for Lewis at Mercedes, but it's hard to fault his decision.    All one needs to do is take a stroll through the F1 Village at any Grand Prix to realize that McLaren demanded too much in restricting his ability to capitalize on the Lewis Hamilton brand.    My hats off to Lewis for making a tough decision . . . my guess is that he will find himself fighting to get into Q3 instead fighting for pole for much of 2013.
 
4)  Sebastian Vettel  

Although Sebastian Vettel held the narrowest of point margins as the teams began the European season, his 2012 was shaping up nothing like the casual romp he enjoyed in 2011.   He initially appeared to struggle, and was often out paced by his teammate.    However as the teams reached Hungary there were subtle indications that Vettel was back on form and on the rise.    Vettel's season actually began at Spa, the moment Alonso fell victim to Grosjean's crazy, hell bent start.  

Vettel and Red Bull emerged from the summer break ready to capitalize on the post European season and in doing so they cemented Seb's place in the history books.     In contrast to my thoughts on Hamilton, I'd long been a fan of Sebastian Vettel.    People and times do certainly change.  It's fair to say that my growing appreciation for Lewis Hamilton in 2012 was balanced by my growing depreciation for Sebastian Vettel.

The truth of the matter is Vettel remains an exceptional talent, certainly one of the best.    Although questions regarding his abilities to fight from behind have been fairly drawn, he has in my mind adequately demonstrated himself to be very much a complete driver.  

Unfortunately, the more I get to know Seb, the less I like him.    Dare I suggest he's growing overly arrogant and borderline obnoxious?   IMHO, He carries two demons on his shoulder like a poster child for the unwitting:  

The first of which has been his abnormal good fortune.   Vettel has enjoyed not just run of the mill good luck, but instead the sort of fortune the universe does not dole out very often, nor indefinitely.   Vettel is riding a wave that is eventually going to have a fairly hard, rapid crash.

The second demon is Seb's ego.    All of this good fortune has gone to his head.   From my vantage point he does not quite see reality.    Granted, we all can have difficulty seeing our paths objectively, and among us F1 drivers generally tend to be a bit more ego-centric.  Unfortunately, a heady, over inflated self image can betray one's focus and determination, and if Seb can't keep his in check he may soon realize his own zenith to be fleeting.

A fair perspective would recognize that Vettel drove great in Abu Dhabi, but his ascent to the podium was primarily the result of an unusually large number of reasonable foes falling victim to retirement or repair.   (It is also no secret that Vettel enjoys a slight advantage also having two Toro Rosso's who will always jump out of his way).

A fair perspective would acknowledge that he was incredibly lucky to have not retired at Interlagos from the first lap accident of his own making.     Yes, I'm sure there is debate over "own making;" I'd be happy to engage that topic in follow up comments.

In both instances, Seb did well to recover . . . but strictly speaking his performance level has been over blown to mythical proportions.    Let's not forget that his Interlagos recovery included those same Toro Rosso's and a parting gift from Michael Schumacher, who apparently must not have been anticipating a post retirement career at Ferrari.

Am I unfair?     Hardly.   Vettel is a rare talent.   Is he head and shoulders above Alonso, Räikkönen, Hamilton?    No.   Did he earn the 2012 Driver's Title?    Yes.   He is a deserved World Champion.    Did he merit that title above all others?   No, but championships often go that way.  

He is the 2012 World Driving Champion, the youngest three time champion ever, and I congratulate him for his historical achievement.

5)  Nico Hulkenberg

The strongest statement I can make about Nico Hulkenberg is Paul di Resta.    A formidable talent, di Resta looked the stronger of the Force India pair over the early part of the year, but much like Vettel, Hulkenberg sprung to life gaining a career best 4th place at Spa followed by a good run of points finishes in the post European fly away season.   He won the BBC "Overtake of the Year" award for his move past Grosjean & Hamilton in Korea.    His charge to the lead in the wet Brazil conditions was spectacular, albeit cut short by clashing with Hamilton into the Senna "S."

Hulkenberg eclipsed di Resta (originally rumored as headed to McLaren) in silly season prognostication.   As Perez emerged as Hamilton's McLaren successor, many suggested that they should have instead chosen Hulkenberg instead.     Ironic indeed, as it was as if Paul di Resta had never been in the frame for the seat.

Hulkenberg jumps to Sauber for 2013, and I expect him to do quite well.

6)  Jenson Button

Jenson had an up and down year, and lands sixth on my list primarily due to that inconsistency.    He had a number of magnificent drives, the sort many have to come to expect given his highly disciplined race craft.    Button usually excels in changeable conditions, therefore his dominance in a very dry, very clear Belgian Grand Prix was surprising.    So strong was Jenson at Spa that I'm not certain, had Hamilton and Alonso survived the first corner, that they could have caught him on that day.

Jenson now clearly leads McLaren into 2013.    I believe that his maturity, race craft, and calm demeanor will serve McLaren well . . . but all of these will be pale if Jenson can not find consistent pace at the front.    He's got a huge challenge ahead, but may also have the best car on the grid.

We've seen what can happen when Jenson has such a car.

7)  Sergio Perez    

Sergio had moments of brilliance.    Malaysia was in fact one of those classic F1 "arrival" moments, where a driver graduates into the realm of potential greatness.     Sergio also performed exceedingly well taking 2nd (and potentially the title) from Alonso at Monza, earning Niki Lauda's admiration in the process.

Unfortunately, Perez then struggled following his strong showing in Italy and the announcement of his move to McLaren.   Races such as Brazil (unfortunate victim) Abu Dhabi (unfortunate perpetrator) are best forgotten.     His final point for 2012 and for Sauber came with a less than impressive 10th place in Singapore.     Singapore?    In hindsight, that is almost unbelievable.

Anyway, it will be interesting to see how Sergio goes at McLaren.    I believe the potential for greatness in Perez remains strong, but the realization will be dependent upon his stock of this year's lessons.     He appears to be a master at preserving his tires . . . and if he can tie all the loose ends together around that rare skill, he could grow to become unbeatable with the right team.  

8)  Nico Rosberg

At the moment Nico captured his first F1 victory in Shanghai, it appeared that Mercedes had indeed come into 2012 a contender.    Unfortunately, that contention seemed to evaporate almost immediately afterwards.

Nico remains a difficult talent to judge, however I believe that his slight edge over Schumacher during their three years as teammates is significant.      I strongly suspect that Hamilton has a surprise waiting at Mercedes; he will find Nico a hard teammate to beat.

Mercedes as a team are equally difficult to pin down.   They more closely resemble their former iteration as Honda than the singular success of 2009 under the title winning moniker of Brawn GP.

One can only imagine what factors contribute to this, but until Nico Rosberg lands within a truly competitive environment, I'm not sure we'll know much more about his true potential either.

9)   Felipe Massa

Felipe gets major kudos for his startling, sensational return to form.      For a driver whose career looked finished . . . seriously beyond hope . . . the manner in which Massa finally recovered to discover faster pace than his title contending teammate begs recognition.

Massa's driving in the opening laps at Interlagos was outstanding.    The manner in which he and Alonso worked off each other against Webber was something to behold.    

Ferrari have stuck by Felipe over difficult times.   Accordingly, he has played the team role in return.     It will be very interesting to see how 2013 plays out within the Scuderia if he continues to improve.

10)   Mark Webber  

Webber looked stronger than ever, and arguably worse than ever, all in one season.

On all counts he should place higher on my list than 10th, but the pitfalls of 2012 were so drastic he almost did not make the list at all.

His victories at Silverstone and Monaco were well deserved.     He took advantage of Alonso's tire woes to mount victory charge worthy of the year end highlight reel.     He capitalized on Michael Schumacher's grid penalty to turn an inherited pole position grid slot into an almost uncontested victory.
Unfortunately, Singapore and Abu Dhabi contrast sharply, and his drive in Abu Dhabi might qualify as the one of the worst by any driver all year long.

He had a fair number of characteristically bad starts . . . I've often suggested that he needs to quit focusing on his post retirement broadcast career, but if Mark didn't talk to Brundle, Buxton, or Coulthard, I'm not sure who would.

Webber is one of the good guys, a real benefit to the sport, and I'm hoping that he ultimately enjoys the success he deserves.    Conversely, I'm cynical enough to know that won't happen at Red Bull.


 Elsewhere along the grid . . .

Pastor Maldonado scored an impressive first victory in Spain, but I found his overall performance in what looked to be a fairly competitive Williams disappointing.  

Paul di Resta struggled, although I would imagine his results don't properly reflect his resolve . . .

Kobayashi had moments . . . he drove very well under pressure to hold off a quickly closing Button at Suzuka to take his very first podium in his home race . . . a real highlight of the season.  

Grosjean showed remarkable pace and had he kept things a bit more tidy (understatement), I would've have acknowledged that potential above.

Schumacher set the fastest quail time for Monaco and scored the only podium result of his return in Valencia, but was never really in contention, and not really a candidate for top ten consideration.    More thoughts here.

Finally, there are some drivers I just don't have a strong enough grasp for when compiling such summaries . . . Ricciardo, Kovalainen, Glock, Petrov.

With this 20 race season wrapping so late into the year, 2013 is just around the corner.    I suspect that things will not change remarkably over the coming 12 months.  

McLaren will probably have, generally speaking, the fastest car but will need to address their reliability issues.    Red Bull will remain without doubt the strongest team on the grid.    Ferrari will probably continue to struggle with tires.    Lotus?   Williams?   Sauber?  

2013 will bring Bottas (Williams), Gutierrez(Sauber), and potentially other new faces.   Sadly we may lose Kobayashi and Kovalainen.    Petrov's future is also far from certain.     HRT is gone and perhaps, too, are de la Rosa and Kartikeyan.     I'm concerned that the pay driver syndrome is taking a firmer grip on the sport.

The tables won't truly be turned upside down until the rules changes of 2014, which will introduce new, V-6 Turbo power plants.